Newcastle United vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Newcastle (+129) \ Wolves (+249) \ Draw (+192)
A little bit of puzzling line here in my estimation, Wolves have won 3 of their last 4, and if not for a questionable sending-off against Leeds while up 2-to 0, it’s a pretty good chance they’d be enjoying a 4 game winning streak. On the opposite side of this one Newcastle has fallen back down to earth since a stretch of 10 games in which they performed amongst the best in the Premier League, having lost their last three matches, including a thrashing by Spurs last weekend.
This one’s a little closer to home with the Magpies being my favorite team, so perhaps the past three performances in clouding my judgment and I’m walking into a trap here, but Newcastle do not deserve to be favored in any way in this game. The good run of form came without ASM in the line-up, and any prolonged success must integrate the team's best player into the side more meaningfully. The issue as it stands is; ASM isn’t pressing like others in his position have been. What this has meant is that United’s defense hasn’t been as resolute, nor have they been controlling games as effectively.
So as it were I find myself scouring the book to find the best value to back Wolves; but as is often the case when betting Wolves I’d advise if possible to wait for team news —— because in games Podence and Jimenez don’t start for Bruno Large Wolves produce only 0.64xG per 90 minutes, while with the pairing starting that number shoots up to 1.08xG per 90 minutes. Suffice to say the pairing is key to creating meaningful chances for Wolves. So if the pairing of Podence/Jimenez starts I’ll be betting the traveling side to make it 4 wins in 5.
Play
Wolverhampton ML +241
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Newcastle (+129) \ Wolves (+249) \ Draw (+192)
A little bit of puzzling line here in my estimation, Wolves have won 3 of their last 4, and if not for a questionable sending-off against Leeds while up 2-to 0, it’s a pretty good chance they’d be enjoying a 4 game winning streak. On the opposite side of this one Newcastle has fallen back down to earth since a stretch of 10 games in which they performed amongst the best in the Premier League, having lost their last three matches, including a thrashing by Spurs last weekend.
This one’s a little closer to home with the Magpies being my favorite team, so perhaps the past three performances in clouding my judgment and I’m walking into a trap here, but Newcastle do not deserve to be favored in any way in this game. The good run of form came without ASM in the line-up, and any prolonged success must integrate the team's best player into the side more meaningfully. The issue as it stands is; ASM isn’t pressing like others in his position have been. What this has meant is that United’s defense hasn’t been as resolute, nor have they been controlling games as effectively.
So as it were I find myself scouring the book to find the best value to back Wolves; but as is often the case when betting Wolves I’d advise if possible to wait for team news —— because in games Podence and Jimenez don’t start for Bruno Large Wolves produce only 0.64xG per 90 minutes, while with the pairing starting that number shoots up to 1.08xG per 90 minutes. Suffice to say the pairing is key to creating meaningful chances for Wolves. So if the pairing of Podence/Jimenez starts I’ll be betting the traveling side to make it 4 wins in 5.
Play
Wolverhampton ML +241
If it cashes and you want more winners just head over to my newsletter --- where I give out my favorite plays for the day in sports! IT IS FREE.
https://coochievsbookie.substack.com/
